Economic Risks and Opportunities Ahead for Supply Chains
Article from MHI Solutions Magazine
The global economy has also been slowing, but the U.S. economy continues to post solid growth. Our U.S. economic outlook is modestly positive, although we expect a slowing in U.S. growth, U.S. job gains and U.S. inflation this year. Meanwhile, European, Chinese and emerging market growth have been under pressure, and an aggregate of Manufacturing PMIs reflected global contraction for a 16th consecutive month in December 2023. High inflation has pushed central banks to raise interest rates, but those policies are poised to reverse and lead to rate cuts, which is poised to support growth in the second half of 2024 and 2025.
Despite a modestly positive U.S. outlook, there are some significant risks. Cold War Two geopolitical risks could be the most disruptive to the outlook, as they present risks to supply chains, oil prices and the global economy. Plus, uncertainty related to the 2024 U.S. election is high. The most disruptive outcome for consumer confidence and the economy, and the worst-case scenario overall, is if we do not know who won the presidential election quickly…
